AirSaas, the Quarter Plan and effectuation: making decisions under uncertainty

Better portfolio governance does not require pretending that every future event can be predicted. Teams face changing priorities, limited capacity and decisions that cannot wait for perfect information. The Quarter Plan provides a short planning rhythm; AirSaas makes capacity, commitments and decisions visible.

This article explores connections with effectuation. It does not claim that software replaces judgement or that quarterly planning removes uncertainty.

Start with the means you actually have

The “bird in hand” principle starts from available means. Applied to portfolio decisions, this means making teams, skills and capacity visible before committing to a list of projects. A plan built on capacity that does not exist will not become feasible simply because every initiative has a high priority.

In a Quarter Plan, teams declare what they can take on and the organisation chooses commitments within that envelope. AirSaas provides a shared view of the portfolio and capacity so the trade-offs can be discussed explicitly.

Make the commitment and the acceptable loss explicit

The “affordable loss” principle asks what can be put at risk, rather than relying only on an optimistic return. For a portfolio, the commitment includes time, capacity and the work that must be deferred.

A quarterly horizon creates an opportunity to review those commitments. It does not make every investment reversible: contracts, dependencies and business obligations still need to be considered. Record what is being committed, what would justify stopping and when the decision will be reviewed.

Build with stakeholders who commit

The “crazy quilt” principle brings together people willing to contribute. A portfolio plan becomes actionable when business sponsors, IT teams and leadership share the trade-offs and commit to their part of the work.

Use the Quarter Plan to make those commitments visible. Use AirSaas as the common support for the discussion, rather than maintaining separate versions of the decision in each department.

Turn surprises into decisions

The “lemonade” principle treats unexpected events as information that can open up new options. An incident, a new business priority or a budget constraint changes what is feasible. The useful response is to show the impact and compare options.

Quarterly reviews provide a regular point of adjustment; material changes may require a decision sooner. Keep the consequences visible: what remains committed, what moves and who needs to agree.

Focus on the actions you can control

The “pilot in the plane” principle emphasises action and influence. A useful portfolio view therefore connects the current situation with the decisions that people can take. It is a support for accountability, not a prediction engine.

AirSaas brings together progress, attention points and capacity to help the organisation decide. The Quarter Plan supplies a shared rhythm for acting and learning.

An expert perspective

In the French article, Jean-Luc Dagron, partner at Talisker and a member of Mastermind Effectuation, connects these principles with collective commitment: available resources, stakeholders and surprises need to be made visible so people can decide together. His contribution is available in the original French article.

Questions to ask before your next quarter

• What capacity is genuinely available after existing commitments?
• What are we prepared to commit, and what are we choosing to defer?
• Who needs to participate in the decision and own its consequences?
• What change would trigger a review before the next quarterly meeting?

To see how quarterly portfolio decisions can be supported in practice, explore the Quarter Plan in AirSaas.